Let us human beings try to survive and flourish through an economy that cares for all - References and quotes
Philosophy
2021
REFERENCES AND QUOTES
PROSPERITY WITHOUT GROWTH“Economics is an artefact of human society. Its apparent intractability is a cultural construct.”196 I ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS Economy as subsystem 15 empty to full world 18 neoclassical economics preanalytical vision 22 I THE EMPATHIC CIVILIZATION: THE RACE TO GLOBAL CONSCIOUSNESS IN A WORLD IN CRISISExtending central nervous system. Maturing of empathy. New energy/communications/consciousness complex structures requires more energy to stay away from equilibrium. 37 Prigogine, dissipative structures, fluctuations, positive feedback. Dissipative structure ability to reorganize itself into higher order of complexity and integration and a greater flow-through. This is the history of human beings where we “have created the most complex systems, andeach succeeding qualitative shift in social structure, up to now, enjoyed greater energy throughput and produced more entropy than the social structure that preceded it.” 38 Equilibrium in near climax ecosystem and Amazon rainforest. 494, 495 peak oil and the oil dependency of the economy 509 new energy for new economy 511 Culture a prerequisite for trade and commerce and governance, since they are built on social trust. Culture creates the empathic cloaks that allows people to confidently engage in market place or government. 550 Vision of economy where collaboration trumps competition. 553 I ENERGY AND ECONOMIC MYTHSMechanistic aspiration of economics made economists forget about natural resources. 350 Economy of any life is governed by the entropy law 352 Economy as irreversible process that takes low entropy (valuable resources) and leaves high entropy (valueless waste). But “It compels us to recognize that the real output of the economic process (or of any life process, for that matter) is not the material flow of waste, but the still mysterious immaterial flux of the enjoymentof life” 353 Myths that price mechanism can offset shortages in land, energy or materials. 354 Limited access to energy and material 355 Hard to create matter 355, 356 Exhaustion of material and recycling a pearl neckless, need enough energy and infinite time 356 When economists forgot natural resources they also forgot waste. 356, 357 Production turns incorporeal and the earth turns into a new Garden of Eden. Fallacy of endless substitution. There are no other material factors than natural resources. “However, substitution within a finite stock of accessible low entropy whose irrevocable degradation is speeded up through use cannot possibly go on forever” 361 Entropic process of nature ignored. Belief in the immortality of mankind, that human will exceed all limitations but mankind’s dowry is finite! “The truth, however unpleasant, is that the most we can do is to prevent any unnecessary depletion of resources and any unnecessary deterioration of the environment, but without claiming that we know the precise meaning of "unnecessary" in this context.”“There is growth when only the production per capita of current types of commodities increases, which naturally implies a growing depletion of equally accessible resources” 363 ITHE ECONOMICS OF THE COMING SPACESHIP EARTHcowboy vs spaceman economy 8 I TURNING POINT: THE END OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH?Reasons for being skeptical about economic growth 1190 No hope for technology to drive economic growth. All product and services are dependent on energy. Positive feedback cycle is the engine of economic growth. Higher prices and declining efficiency in turning energy to useful work. 1191 Energy conversion efficiency (exergy to useful work) is declining. 1192 Slowdown in efficiency gains means slow economic growth. 1193 I SUSTAINABILITY ECONOMICS: WHERE DO WE STAND?Limits already exceeded. Figure 5. 286 287 Figure 6. “There is little chance of a ‘no-growth’ scenario like Fig. 5, and few would advocate it. However, economic development in the developing countries over the next half century at recent growth rates, combined with unavoidable population growth, will inevitably require massive increases in the consumption of natural resources, more like (Fig. 6).” The inconvenient growth truth. 287 Increase in population and Factor 10 Club. 288 Figure 8 what we need. 289 More growth means more material, excacerbated by population growth. Peak oil and other peaking resources. SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER, DOUGHNUT ECONOMICS: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST290 Spaceship economy, highly energy intensive. Ecological and environmental process must be integrated in economy. SeeDOUGHNUT ECONOMICS: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST, MEASURING REGENERATIVE ECONOMICS: 10 PRINCIPLES AND MEASURES UNDERGIRDING SYSTEMIC ECONOMIC HEALTHStrong sustainability – substitution is not possible. 291 How economic textbooks portrayed economic activity as a closed loop. Economics can’t still see exergy is an essential factor of production. “In contrast to the closed perpetual motion machine described above, the real economy is essentially a large-scale materials processing system, largely powered (for the present) by machines using fossil fuels that were created and stored in the earth's crust hundreds of millions of years ago. Virtually none of the materials consumed by the economy are recycled at present. The basic engine of economic growth in a massproduction manufacturing economy is the positive feedback cycle, shown in Fig. 11. In brief, the impetus to growth arises from the fact that demand for a product tends to increase as (real) prices fall. This phenomenon is called the ‘price elasticity’ of demand. Falling prices, in turn, result from exploiting economies of scale in manufacturing. Thus, firms can reduce costs, cut prices, increase sales and maximize profits (and grow) by increasing the scale of production. So ever greater consumption of resources is, ipso facto, a driver of growth in this paradigm: consumption (leading to investment and technological progress) drives growth, just as growth and technological progress drives consumption.”292 Spaceship economy - Solar hydrogen plus conservation economy 293 Problem with neo-classical economics is that it doesn’t understand physics, it has no role for physical materials, energy or the laws of thermodynamics. “Energy and materials exist in the theory as outputs – products and services – but not as inputs or drivers.” 294 I THE ENTROPY LAW AND THE ECONOMIC PROCESS IN RETROSPECTdegrading material and problems of recycling 7 The upshot is that material vital for technology will sooner rather than later become extremely scares in the available form, not 7. Low entropy is value. Scarcity is steadily increases. Good shit of hydra – flux of enjoyment of life. 8 Solow’s unenlightened quote 12 Capitalist system thrashes in the claws of the entropy law. not 23, 13 Technology efficient lever but mineral bonanza the source for economic growth 13 I BEYOND GROWTH“Let us have an end of the pretence that economics should not be concerned with morals”. 1st and 2nd law of thermodynamics the starting point of economics. 185 Cadillac or plow, economy is about choices 195 I < THE CIRCULAR BIOECONOMY AND DECOUPLING: IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH Growth Schrödinger, Prigogine and non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Self-organization is unique to open systems. They have to gather inputs from their environment and dispose wastes into it. The complex metabolic systems must “in order to survive they must ‘stress’ the admissible environment they operate in. This predicament can become fatal for complex metabolic systems, such as human societies, that can grow both in size and in pace of activity per unit of size (e.g., economic growth).” They have to adapt to boundary conditions and anticipate future troubles to survive! “A social-ecological system can be defined as the complex of functional and structural components operating within a prescribed boundary that is controlled in an integrated way by the activities expressed by a given set of ecosystems (in the biosphere) and a given set of social actors and institutions (in the technosphere) (Giampietro, 2018a). Thus, social-ecological systems are open systems (they must exchange input and waste flows with their context), depend on their context for maintaining their current level of activity and size of production factor and must be adaptive and anticipatory in order to survive in time because of their option space being constrained by processes beyond control.” “The conditions for the survival of a dissipative system, such as a city, an economy or a tornado, have been explained in detail by Prigogine (1980). In short, a dissipative system (W) is determined by an expected pattern of interaction between two components: (i) a dissipative structure (X) generating a positive entropy flux needed to express its structures and functions; (ii) an environment (E) providing a flux of negative entropy compensating the continuous destruction of favorable gradients by the dissipative structure X. In analytical terms, the relation can be written as follows: dS dS –dS W X = E” 147 The problem with Ellen MacArther Foundation and their view on circular economy, is that you can’t increase economy without increasing the consumption of natural resources, simply by recycling. You can’t recycle products at zero biophysical cost. “On the contrary, the bioeconomics of Georgescu-Roegen emphasizes that the economic process is entropic and that therefore it entails a continuous consumption of resources that must be counterbalanced by the work of nature to remain stable. In this original narrative, the industrial revolution is considered a unique event that made it possible to break away from the external ecological constraints associated with the limited pace and density of flow throughput found in pre-industrial economies. This breaking away was only possible because of the plundering of non-renewable fossil energy resources that enabled a dramatic acceleration of the pace and density of economic throughputs through a linearization of previously circular processes.” Economy will slow down when biological processes are introduced. 154 I COLONIALISM IN THE ANTROPOCENE: THE POLITICAL ECOLOGY OF THE MONEY-ENERGY-TECHNOLOGY COMPLEX“Jointly, environmental activists and critical academics today provide powerful signals that the economic models born in colonial Britain were not designed to promote a sustainable and equitable planet, yet no fundamental rethinking appears to be occurring within the established discipline of economics itself. Although few would deny that current economic policies are inexorably generating rising inequalities, resource depletion, greenhouse gas emissions and financial vulnerabilities, for a respectable economist to seriously question the design of the money artefact ultimately responsible for these processes would be as unthinkable as it would have been for a fourth-century Roman to question slavery, or a fourteenth century Easter Islander to question deforestation. In addition to submitting to the sheer inertia of conducting business as usual, of course, the tenacity of conventional economic thought reflects the implacable interests of powerful shareholders, executives, and politicians.” 16 “The logic of neoclassical economics is indeed impeccable, as in Lawrence Summers’ infamous memorandum demonstrating the enhanced ‘efficiency’ of shifting the most polluting industries to the poorest parts of the world, where the economic consequences of human illness would be less problematic.47 Only a discipline as insulated from biophysical reality (and morality) as economics could reach such bizarre conclusions as these, yet they simply elaborate the alienated and fetishized logic of money. The conceptual myopia of mainstream economics is intrinsically inimical to considerations of environmental and climate justice. The logic may be impeccable, but if the premises and assumptions on which it is founded are fallacious – as is the case with monetary reductionism and faith in perpetual growth – it can break down like a house of cards.” 19 I A BLUEPRINT FOR SURVIVAL“The combination of human numbers and per capita consumption has a considerable impact on the environment, in terms of both the resources we take from it and the pollutants we impose on it.” 2 “It should go without saying that the world cannot accommodate this continued increase in ecological demand. Indefinite growth of whatever type cannot be sustained by finite resources. This is the nub of the environmental predicament. It is still less possible to maintain indefinite exponential growth —and unfortunately the growth of ecological demand is proceeding exponentially (i.e. it is increasing geometrically, by compound interest).” 3 Governments need for growth 6 Conditions for a stable society: 1. minimum disruption of ecologcial processes 2 Maximum conservation of matter and energy 3 populations in which recruitment equals loss 4. A social system in which the individual can enjoy, rather than fell restricted by the first three conditions. 8 Stabilising population. Idea of optimum size. “The two main variables affected by population numbers, as opposed to per capita consumption, are the extent to which the emotional needs and social aspirations of the community can be met (i.e. the complex of satisfactions which has come to be known as the quality of life), and the community's ability to feed itself.” Carrying capacity. 13 “It is worth recalling Prof. Commoner's dictum that since economics is the science of the distribution of resources, all of which are derived from the ecosphere, it is foolish to perpetuate an economic system which destroys it. Ideally (and as befits the etymology of the two words), ecology and economics should not be in conflict: ecology should provide the approach, the framework for an understanding of the interrelationships of social and environmental systems; and economics should provide the means of quantifying those interrelationships in the light of such an understanding, so that decisions on alternative courses of action can be made without undue difficulty.”13 Real costs and Spartans 21 I PROSPERITY WITHOUT GROWTH Bouldings, “Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” 39 Meaning of prosperity. Prosperity is not economic growth. 3 reason against economic growth 1. creates inequality, trickled to the few, inequality causes problems 2. we are not happier 3. is impossible on a finite planet. Traditional wisdom of well-being. Buen vivir and indigenous sumak kawsay in Ecuador. Finite planet. “Any credible vision of prosperity must hold a defensible position on the question of limits. This is particularly true of a vision based on growth. How – and for how long – is continued growth possible without coming up against ecological and resource constraints?” 41 History of “Limits to growth”. Rome Club and “the predicament to mankind”. Forrester and the first system dynamics model of the resource dependency of the global economy. From Forrester sketch the MIT-group with Donella Meadows created the report “Limits to growth” with a robust analysis. “At the heart of Limits to Growth lies a remarkably robust analysis of the relationships between population, technology, industrial capital, agriculture and environmental quality. Though these interdependencies are complex, the dynamics are relatively easy to convey. Typically, argued the MIT team, the pattern of industrial development is running along predictable lines. As more and more people achieve higher and higher levels of affluence, they consume more and more of the world’s resources. Material growth cannot continue indefinitely because planet earth is physically limited. Eventually, the scale of activity passes the carrying capacity of the environment, resulting in a sudden contraction – either controlled or uncontrolled. First the resources supporting humanity – food, minerals, industrial output – begin to decline. This is followed by a collapse in population.” Commodity prices rises as diminishing returns increases because of marginal costs of resources increases (resources like oil are required to produce food and other stuff and the good resources are used first) EROI. 48 Studies confirming scenarios of Limits to growth. Resource dependency of the system. 50 “This extraordinary ramping up of global economic activity is without historical precedent. It’s totally at odds with the finite resource base and the fragile ecology on which we depend for survival.” In current system economic stability is dependent on growth. “No subsystem of a finite system can grow indefinitely – at least in physical terms. Economists have to be able to answer the question of how a continually growing economic system can fit within a finite ecological system. The only answer available is that growth in dollars must be ‘decoupled’ from growth in physical throughputs and environmental impacts. But as we shall see more clearly in what follows, this hasn’t so far achieved what’s needed. There are no prospects for it doing so in the immediate future. And the sheer scale of decoupling required to meet the limits set out here (and stay within them in perpetuity while the economy keeps on growing) staggers the imagination.”“In these circumstances, a return to business as usual is not an option. Prosperity for the few founded on ecological destruction and persistent social injustice is no foundation for a civilised society. Economic stability is vital. Protecting people’s jobs – and creating new ones – is absolutely essential. But we also stand in urgent need of a renewed sense of shared prosperity. A deeper commitment to justice in a finite world.” 57 “‘Amid the crisis of 2008’, remarked an Economist leader article at the time, ‘it is easy to forget that liberalisation had good consequences as well: by making it easier for households and businesses to get credit, deregulation contributed to economic growth.’” 67 Growth is not necessary for basic entitlements 97 Economic turbulence can mean humanitarian loss 105 “Humanitarian loss in the face of economic turbulence, in other words, may be more dependent on social structure and political response than on the degree of economic instability that is encountered.” 107 The functioning of capitalist economy 109 Absolut increase in CO2 Figure 5.2 116 Increasing material footprint 118 No evidence of decoupling however evidence of the opposite. 119 “But none of this will happen automatically. None of it flows easily from the logic of conventional economics. There is no simple formula that leads from the efficiency of the market to the meeting of ecological targets. Simplistic assumptions that capitalism’s propensity for efficiency will allow us to stabilise the climate or protect against resource scarcity are nothing short of delusional. The truth is that there is as yet no credible, socially just, ecologically sustainable scenario of continually growing incomes for upwards of nine billion people. And the critical question is not whether the complete decarbonisation of our energy systems or the dematerialisation of our consumption patterns is technically feasible, but whether it is possible in our kind of society. The analysis in this chapter suggests that it is entirely fanciful to suppose that ‘deep’ emission and resource cuts can be achieved without confronting the structure of market economies.” 125 Description of modern capitalism: “But even as the engine of growth delivers productivity improvement, so it also drives forward the scale of throughput. Nowhere is there any evidence that efficiency can outrun – and continue to outrun – scale in the way it must do if growth is to be compatible with sustainability.”“In particular, it explores two interrelated features of economic life that are central to the growth dynamic. On the one hand, the profit motive stimulates newer, better or cheaper products and services through a continual process of innovation and ‘creative destruction’. At the same time, the market for these goods relies on an expanding consumer demand, driven by a complex social logic. These two factors combine to drive ‘the engine of growth’ on which modern economies depend and lock us in to an ‘iron cage’ of consumerism.3 It’s essential to get a better handle on this twin dynamic, not least so that we can identify the potential to escape from it. The starting point is to unravel some of the workings of modern capitalism.” 126 Different kinds of capitalism. Structure of capitalism 128 The workings of company and problems of profit. “The driver for efficiency is essentially the profit motive: the need to increase the difference between revenues from sales and the costs associated with the so-called factor inputs: capital, labour and material resources.” Labour productivity is declining, from 4 - 5% 1960 to 0,5 % 2015, SeeTURNING POINT: THE END OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH? on useful work. Increasing labour productivity means “same quantity of goods and services with fewer people, the cycle creates a downward pressure on employment that’s only relieved if output increases.” “Efficiency quite literally drives growth forwards. By reducing labour (and resource) inputs, efficiency brings down the cost of goods over time. This has the effect of stimulating demand and promoting growth. Far from acting to reduce the throughput of goods, technological progress serves to increase production output by reducing factor costs.” Rebound effect. Physical limit to efficiency. 130 This evolutionary map of the human heart reveals the crux of the matter. What we’ve created in consumer capitalism is an economy which privileges, and systematically encourages, one specific segment of the human soul – the upper right quadrant in Figure 7.2. We’ve done this, in part, because the economy that we’ve created is best served by selfish, novelty-seeking behaviour. Without the self-serving hedonist lurking within us, the economy itself is in danger of collapsing.” 155 Axelrod, “the balance of behaviours in a society depends on how that society is structured. When technologies, infrastructures, institutions and social norms all reward self-enhancement and novelty, then selfish sensation-seeking behaviours prevail over more conservative, altruistic ones.” SeeCOMMON CAUSE – THE CASE FOR WORKING WITH OUR CULTURAL VALUES on policy feedback and see-saw of intrinc and extrinsic values. “Each society strikes this balance between altruism and selfishness (and between novelty and tradition) in different places. And where this balance is struck depends crucially on social structure. Social structures can change and can be changed. They are amenable to policy. And all the evidence suggests that the time is ripe for such changes, because the existing structures are poorly aligned with human interests and values.” "The idea of an economy whose task is to provide capabilities for flourishing within ecological limits offers the most credible vision to put in its place.The rewards from these changes are likely to be significant. A less materialistic society will be a happier one. A more equal society will be a less anxious one. Greater attention to community and to participation in the life of society will reduce the loneliness and anomie that has undermined wellbeing in the consumer economy.” 157 Obscuring complexity of finance. Henry Ford, “It is well enough that the people of this nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” 169 Economy is not and end in itself but a mean to prosperity. 173 “In short, we need a convincing macroeconomics for a ‘post-growth’ society. One in which neither economic stability nor decent employment rely inherently on relentless consumption growth. One in which economic activity remains within ecological scale. One in which our ability to flourish within ecological limits becomes both a guiding principle for design and a key criterion for success.” 177 Economics as subject of study. Angelized growth. Myth of decoupling. 179 . "What happens to employment when material consumption is no longer expanding? What happens to inequality as conventional growth rates decline? What can we say about financial stability when capital no longer accumulates? What happens to the public sector in the face of declining aggregate demand? These are the kinds of questions that we need to ask about this new economy." 188 Sharing capital 190 “post-growth economics is an exercise in continually challenging the conventional wisdom.” 193 Economics is a cultural construct. “Economics is an artefact of human society. Its apparent intractability is a cultural construct.” We decide what is possible. Imagination! 196 Fixing economies 216 End of capitalism?, depends on how it is defined. 227 I THE SPIRIT LEVEL: WHY MORE EQUAL SOCITIES ALMOST ALWAYS DO BETTERLess meeting other people less trust. Inequality is a powerful social divider In-group, out-group affecting our ability to identify with and empathize with other people. See Empathic Civilisation, WHY WE COOPERATE 51 Social status (competing for resources) vs friendship (sharing resources).196, 197 Gifts make friends and friends make gifts. Social status and friendship reflect different ways of dealing with scarce comforts and necessities among animals and human. 197 “As well as the potential for conflict, human beings have a unique potential to be each other’s best source of co-operation, learning, love and assistance of every kind” Human beings depend on each other to acquire skill and our capacity for specialization give us an unrivalled potential to benefit from cooperation. “We have become attentive to friendship and social status because the quality of social relationshisp has always been crucial to well-being, determining whether other people are feared rivals or vital soucrercs of security, co-operation and supports”. Lack of friends or social status affect our health. 198 Hunter gathering societies’ social and economic life was based on gift exchange, food sharing and equality. 198, 199 Systems of material or economic relations are system of social relation. 199 Altruistic punishment to reinforce cooperative behavior and prevent freeloading. Egalitarian preferences fly in the face of inequal societies. Benefits of less hierarchical societies, position of women is better, quality of social relations less hostile, trust each other more, community life is stronger, less violence, punishment is less harsh. 200 No need for further economic growth. It doesn’t improve our lives. There are other ways to improve the quality of life in rich countries. 216 Inequality, physical quotas and steady-state economy 220 Equality precondition for steady-state economy. Status competition a driver of consumption, consumption for social distinction. Cost of dissatisfaction that rich impose on society, like smoke from on a chimney. 222 “Consumerism shows how powerfully we are affected by each other.” Limiting growth means limiting inequality which increases quality of life. Need of egalitarian policies. “Historic shift of sources for human satisfaction from economic growth to a more sociable society.” 226 I ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONSReligion and growth xix Economy is the allocation of limited resources among competing ends. Plows or SUVs? Difference between neoclassical and ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS regarding allocation. What ends do we desire? Utility, and traditional economics wrongly equating welfare with what people want to buy and sell on the market. Market naturally misses important nonmarket goods. See THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on goals, < DOUGHNUT ECONOMICS: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST on problem of utility and narrow picture of human beings.3 Neoclassical economics believe human beings are insatiable why expanding growth is a desirable goal (end), with ever-greater provision of goods and service is thought to expand welfare. Market revealed desire ends. SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on goals, < DOUGHNUT ECONOMICS: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST on problem of utility and narrow picture of human beings. Limits of pareto efficient allocation. Problem with efficiency. 4 Growth as increase throughput. Growth cannot continue indefinitely because earth and its resources are finite. Development (qualitative change) vs growths limits. End of growth doesn’t mean end to development. 6 Economy a subsystem of the ecosystem. Open, closed and isolated system 15 Economy is a part of the whole, the planets ecosystem. Uneconomic growth and optimal scale 16 Figure 2.1 18 Marx vs Malthus. Throughput show the dependence of the economic system on the environment. Extreme use of materials. 33 Economy the study of allocation of scarce means among competing ends. Policy presupposes knowledge possibility and purpose/means and ends. See THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on setting goals of a system37 Problem of subjective wants as source of value and internalization of costs. Many come as a surprise and we missed to calculate and continue to miscalculate them, carbon dioxide for example. Economic imperialists, calculating costs and Gosplan 51 Economics wanted to be like mechanical physics. Alfred Marshall although thought biology would be a better model. Entropy means absence of temperature differential and inability to perform work. Universe and heath Death. Mechanical physics, no free will but allows circular flow in economics. Economic system is entropic! 1st law of Thermodynamics states that you can’t create something from nothing. “…hence that all production must ultimately be based on resources provided by nature.” Only low entropy can transform resources. 69 1st law of Thermodynamics also waste is created in the economic process. 2nd law of Thermodynamics both in process of transforming resources into useful stuff and in the disintegration of useful stuff. “The economy is thus an ordered system for transforming low-entropy raw materials and energy into high-entropy waste and unavailable energy, providing humans with a “psychic flux” of satisfactions in the process. Most importantly, the order in our economic system, its ability to produce and provide us with satisfaction, can only be maintained by a steady stream of low-entropy matter-energy, and this high-quality, useful matter-energy is only a fraction of the gross mass of matter-energy of which the Earth is composes” See THE ENTROPY LAW AND THE ECONOMIC PROCESS IN RETROSPECT 70 Problems of wastes – the other end of economic process as dictated by laws of thermodynamics 107 From empty to full world. There are limits to growth – laws of thermodynamics! Economic theory developed in a empty world. 111 Market failure and water. If economics rule rich can water their lawn while poor cannot afford water to their crops. 197 Optimal scale and fair distribution replaces growth (and full employment) as a goal in ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS. See THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on setting goals of a system 223 When does growth become uneconomic? How are we going to deal with overpopulation, inequitable distribution and involuntary unemployment? 226 Only transformation – raw materials are transformed into useful things and waste. Useful things are transformed through inte waste by consumption. Utilities – useful temporary arrangements of matter and energy. Throughput governed by 1st and 2nd Laws of Thermodynamics not circular flow accounting conventions. 227 Manmade and natural resources are complements. 232 Valuing natural resources/ecosystem implicitly assumes natural and manmade are alike and substitutable. They are not. 236 Thus increasing welfare for one person doesn’t have to decrease it for another person. Uncouple physical consumption from resource use and waste product is as it sound impossible because of 1st and 2nd law of thermodynamics. 243 “Since there is no limit to the accumulation of abstract exchange value, and since abstract exchange value is convertible into concrete use value, we seem to have concluded that there must not be any limit to concrete use values either. This has perhaps led to the notion that exponential growth, the law of money growing in the bank at compound interest, is also the law of growth of the real, or material, economy.” 247 Impossibility of growth, doublings cannot go on forever. However, economists believes so and also use it to discount future. 256 Marginal utility of a dollar is bigger for a poor person than for a rich. 394 An economic system should not be devoted to the most efficient means of producing material goods bur rather to the most efficient mean om producing human well-being. 396 Finance and distribution. Inequity iceberg. Financial assests already owned by the wealthy grows faster thus increasing inequality. Computerly programmed redistribution of real wealth. And the computers requires existing wealth. “Even when financial assets do contribute to the real growth of market goods and services, for the richest nations, which host the largest financial sectors, marginal costs of economic growth often outweigh the marginal benefits. In this case, the few reap the financial benefits, while the many, even those living in those richest nations, pay the social and environmental costs.” 404 Difference in treating financial crises in underdeveloped and overdeveloped countries. Dealing with financial crises/system systematically, treat economy as a complex system. 405 “Currently, an economic crisis is defined as any threat to economic growth; a recession is explicitly defined as two consecutive quarters without growth in GNP. Implicit in this definition is the paradigm of the economic system as the whole and the ecosystem as the part, and the goal of endless growth. If we accept the ecological economic paradigm, in which the economy is sustained and contained by the global ecosystem, then continuous growth is of course impossible. An appropriate goal is to enhance quality of life. In the ecological economic paradigm, we therefore redefine a crisis as economic conditions that generate (or will inevitably generate) unemployment, poverty, misery, or instability. In other words, we define crisis as an economic threat to our quality of life.”“Among the policies implicit in these goals are public investments in education, the development and deployment of green energy technologies, maintenance of critical public infrastructure, and restoration of depleted natural capital.” 406 I ARBETSSAMHÄLLET – HUR ARBETET ÖVERLEVDE TEKNOLOGINThe rephrasing of capitalism of radical demands for structural transformation into system preservation social issues. 69 Demand is purchasing power and is neither democratic or democratic, e.g Viagra vs medicine for malaria See BEYOND GROWTH on Georgescu-Roegen 19697 Director of Lehman Brothers and the Protestant philosophy of restraint återhållsamsfilosofi. 100 Economy is abandoned through PR and governmental stimuli 106 Keynes and Economic possibilities for our Grandchildren solving mankind’s economic problem. 107 Will we have a nervous breakdown? Problem activating ourselves outside the realm of work 108 series of naturalized falsehood and the overwhelming wholeness 127 The need for a discussion of needs 138 Consumerism as meta ideology has protected the survival of capitalism 139 The irrational overproduction is shown by the waste of material and human resources within the sphere of production. 145 Waste is a part of capitalism. Technical changes in the production will force us to change our economic system and the obligation to work See Dougnut economy on who will own the robots 146 Some self-reflection is needed, do the services we provide really produce necessities of life? 168 I MYTEN OM MASKINEN: ESSÄER OM MAKT; MODERNITET OCH MILJÖRosa Luxemburg and the expansion of capitalism 34, 35 Paul Baran, chronic lack of demand and underconsumption See ARBETSSAMHÄLLET – HUR ARBETET ÖVERLEVDE TEKNOLOGIN on overproduction. Franks and Amin and dependency theory 35 The reason resources are available depends on the socially constructed difference between exergy content and world market prices. Growth is a consequence of the difference in how industrial products are valued in relation to resources. 59 World market prices are socially constructed and negotiable. 60 The workings of an industrial society 61 Production increases entropy and industry live off not compensating for the increase in entropy 63 Environmental taxes worthy of their name wourd bring down capitalism SeeCOLONIALISM IN THE ANTROPOCENE: THE POLITICAL ECOLOGY OF THE MONEY-ENERGY-TECHNOLOGY COMPLEX15 63, 64 Ecology and economy, biosphere vs technosphere. Both biosphere and technosphere are self-organizing systems, dissipative structures, that grows when used exergy is rewarded with new exergy. The difference is that in the case of the biosphere uses the (almost) infinite solar energy and the entropy (heat) is lost in space while the technosphere uses finite resources and the entropy (heat and waste) stays on earth. Biosphere is based on nature. Technosphere is based on the idea of money. SeeTHE SCIENCE OF FLOW SAYS EXTREME INEQUALITY CAUSES ECONOMIC COLLAPSEhttps://evonomics.com/science-flow-says-extreme-inequality-causes-economic-collapse/, MEASURING REGENERATIVE ECONOMICS: 10 PRINCIPLES AND MEASURES UNDERGIRDING SYSTEMIC ECONOMIC HEALTH64 Exchange values that makes it possible to build a data center in the north should be of the same kind that provides the basic necessities in south 65 How ideas affect material processes, get perspective on our idea systems to evaluate them and comparing them with alternative systems that might reflective higher value in terms of well-being See THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER 16378 5 ways of accumulation 92 Undercompensation of labour as a way of accumulation and its sub-strategies a) slavery b) exchange of gift or other transaction based on reciprocity c) redistribution, taxes or dues to political centers. d) paid employment 94 Underpayment of resources as a way of accumulation 95 Can ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS help the poor 120 “‘Capital accumulation’ as a mutually reinforcing relationship between material infrastructure and its symbolic ability to make claims on other peoples resources” 125 Neoclassical economy used the concept of utility to dissolve the difference between exchange value and use value, equaling the value of a product with its price 128 The peaceful persuasion strategies to claim other people’s work or resources are reciprocity, redistribution and market. Symbolic value can be used by its owner to make other people work for them (sea shells, precious metals, securities). 129 Local systems of symbols determine the symbolic value’s catalytic ability. Difference to fossil fuel which has production value. 130 Industrial infrastructure has to sustain an uneven exchange to survive and grow. Roegen and economic process as dissipation of energy and materials. 137 Prigogine and dissipative structrures. The costs of industrial metropolis are 1. Acquisition of negative entropy from somewhere else 2. Shift of entropy to somewhere else. “Such a perspective is important because it could help us to explain increasing inequality in technological development and economic growth between different sectors of national and international economies” SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on “Success to the successful” 138 Poverty and technology development are two sides of the same coin as time and spatial resources are limited. “Från gudaföda till maskinfetishems förblir de ekonomiska systems landskap möblerade med våra egenhändigt tillverkade synvillor”. 164 Georgescu-Roegen, entropic economic process and the growth of technosphere made possible by a self-reinforcing unequal exchange. SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on Success to the successful 173 Technosphere and Prigogines dissipative structures. 173, 174 The technosphere exchange of exergy for entropy is unlike other dissipative structure in the universe in that it is based on a social relation, an uneven price relation. It is the exploitation of someone’s environment/nature, a shift of the consumption of resources 174 Cultural perceptions make unequal exchange seem equal in similar way in both the Inca empire and textile manufacturing in 19th century England. Modern perceptions about wage and market prices. Technology is like the godlike figure of the Inca ruler both seen as cornucopias, but their productivity as a cultural illusion concealing unequal exchange. They are fetishisms. 180 The conceptual worlds of neoclassical economy are destroying meaning and ecosystems 189 Neoclassical economy has with abstract concepts made supply systems tone-deaf to local ecological conditions 190 It is topsy-turvy to expect that a person willingness to pay will coincide with the thermodynamic potential of things 196 I DOUGHNUT ECONOMICS: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMISTPictures and economics 19 Paul Samuelson and origin of circular flow 22 Preanalytic vision, worldview, paradigm, frame , Korzybski, “map is not territory” George Box “All models are wrong, but some are useful”. See FINDING FRAMES: NEW WAYS TO ENGAGE THE UK PUBLIC IN GLOBAL POVERTY 68, Prosperity on sacred canopy without growth 221 “Rethinking economics is not about finding the correct one (because it doesn’t exist), it’s about choosing or creating one that best serves our purpose - reflecting the context we face, the values we hold, and the aims we have. As humanity’s context, values, and aims continually evolve, so too should the way we envision the economy” 24 Thinking as a 21st economist. Change the goal of economics 28 Economy and Xenophon. Economy used to have a goal. James Steuart “secure a certain fund of subsistence for all of the inhabitants, obviate every circumstance which may render it precarious”. Even Smith had a goal with economy. Mill changed direction and thought that economy should abide laws instead of goals. 32 Growth looked as a panacea for social and economic ailments 36 Kuznets, the inventor of GDP, later critical of GNP. Donella Meadows, one of the lead authors of Limits to growth, “‘Growth is one of the stupidest purposes ever invented by any culture,’ she declared in the late 1990s; ‘we’ve got to have an enough.’ In response to the constant call for mor growth, she argued, we should always ask: ‘growth of what, and why, and for whom, and whom pays the cost , and how long can it last and what’s the cost to the planet, and how much is enough?’” See DANA (DONELLA) MEADOWS LECTURE: SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS37 Economy depends on society (trust, norms and a sense of reciprocity). SeeTHE EMPATHIC CIVILIZATION: THE RACE TO GLOBAL CONSCIOUSNESS IN A WORLD IN CRISIS on culture as a prerequisite for economy Economy and the 4 realms of provisioning 67 Ha Joon Chang an markets are never free. 72 Problem with Ricardo comparative advantage theory in modern times. Undermining domestic food production. SeeECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS on comparative advantage 76 Ha- Joon Chang, kicking away the ladder and how comparative advantage can be built. 79 Charles Stanton Devas “homo oeconomicus” in reference to Mill. Mills wanted human being to be the atom, to economics to be as Newtons mechanistic physics. Origin of utility. 84 The solitary, self-interested, utility calculating, insatiable, superpowered economic cartoon human being became the model for reality. Robert Frank, belief of human nature shapes human nature. Economics, cocreating reality, the study of MacKenzi and Milli and the Consumer vs Citizen reaction study. See COMMON CAUSE – THE CASE FOR WORKING WITH OUR CULTURAL VALUESon policy feedback,SOME COSTS OF AMERICAN CORPORATE CAPITALISM: A PSYCHOLOGICAL EXPLORATION OF VALUE AND GOAL CONFLICTS, In search of homo economicus: behavioral experiments in 15 small-scale societies 73, 74, 77 86 The feeling of fair has cultural differences and is impacted by social structures such as economy See COMMON CAUSE – THE CASE FOR WORKING WITH OUR CULTURAL VALUESon policy feedback,SOME COSTS OF AMERICAN CORPORATE CAPITALISM: A PSYCHOLOGICAL EXPLORATION OF VALUE AND GOAL CONFLICTS, In search of homo economicus: behavioral experiments in 15 small-scale societies 73, 74, 77 91 We live withing the biosphere. We are dependent on nature. Economics takes place within the nature. SeeECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS on economy as a subsystem to the ecosystem 15, 16, 18 99 Problems with the promise of economic equilibrium modiel, it is just not possible to add up demand. Sonnenschein - Mantel – Debreu conditions. Critic from Solow and Samuelson. 113 Warren weaver and organized complexity in world including economics. Complexity science develops in the 1970s and is starting to be embraced by economy. A view from the future and David Colander 115 Economist have been against mechanical view of economy, even Hayek. Externalities only external in narrowminded economy model, Daly and Sterman. Because externalities were treated as externalities they became the social and ecological crises of today. We have to include externalities to be able to flourish in the future. Equilibrium economics limited assumptions (perfect competition, diminishing returns, full information, and rational actors) but real world is complex See Thinking in system. 120 Bubbles in economy and Newton buying stock in South Sea Company. Minsky and reinforcing feedback loops in economics. System dynamics and inequality. Reinforcing feedbacks of wealth and poverty, Success to the successful! SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on Success to the successful 123 Reinforcing feedback in business and 4 agricultural giant companies. SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on Success to the successful Inventor of Monopoly Elizabeth Magie and Henry George and prosperity rules. Sugascape, inequality, more helps getting more and luck has to do with it! See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXegsaDctGE Matthew-effect. Rising inequality in the world. SeeTHE SPIRIT LEVEL: WHY MORE EQUAL SOCITIES ALMOST ALWAYS DO BETTER Weaken the Success to the Successful feedback loop. SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on Success to the successful 126 Economy embedded in biosphere, feedback loops, and climate change and other environmental issues. Collapsing societies. Limits to growth. 129 Limits to growth and World 3 was right. Disperse and circulate value rather than concentrate. SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on Success to the successful, Sustainable systems, THE SCIENCE OF FLOW SAYS EXTREME INEQUALITY CAUSES ECONOMIC COLLAPSEhttps://evonomics.com/science-flow-says-extreme-inequality-causes-economic-collapse/, MEASURING REGENERATIVE ECONOMICS: 10 PRINCIPLES AND MEASURES UNDERGIRDING SYSTEMIC ECONOMIC HEALTH. Tomorrows economy: “An economy that is distributive by design is one whose dynamics tend to disperse and circulate value as it is created, rather than concentrating it in ever-fewer hands. An economy that is regenerative by design is one in which people become full participants in regenerating Earth’s life-giving cycles so that we thrive within planetary boundaries.” Leave mechanic metaphors and embrace economy-as-organism. Economy as a garden and we are the gardeners. 132 Beinhocker, experiment! Ostrom, “no one knows for sure what will work, so it is important to build a system that can evolve and adapt rapidly” Donella Meadows, find leverage points and change big, change goal. Effective systems have healthy hierarchy, with nested systems serving the greater whole, self-organization and resilience. SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER 75134 Hippocratic oath for economics and politicians, DeMartino. Suggestion from Raworth: “act in service, respect autonomy, be prudential, work with humility.” 136 Piketty and no Kuznets of inequality. Piketty, households of earning and/or owning and capitalism that generates inequality damaging to democratic values. “Why? Because the returns to capital have tended to grow faster than the economy as a whole, leading wealth to become ever more concentrated. That dynamic is then reinforced through political influence -from corporate lobbying to campaign fincancing – that further promotes the interests of the already wealthy.” The Success to the successful trap. Kuznets results was a consequence of the studies being done during a period where World wars had depleted capital and theensuing progressive taxation had equalized through public investment in education, health care and social security. Trickle down doesn’t work just ask IMF. See INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Strategy, Policy, and Review Department Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective, THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER The consequences of inequality: worse life, worse democracy, worse environment, worse economic instability. SeeTHE SPIRIT LEVEL: WHY MORE EQUAL SOCITIES ALMOST ALWAYS DO BETTER, PROSPERITY WITHOUT GROWTH142 Economy of the future must alter not only income but the distribution of wealth, time and power. Natures network by branching fractals, river delta, branches in a tree, blood vessels, vein In leafs. Balance between systems efficiency and resilience. Nature teaching for economy is diversity and distribution. SeeTHE SCIENCE OF FLOW SAYS EXTREME INEQUALITY CAUSES ECONOMIC COLLAPSEhttps://evonomics.com/science-flow-says-extreme-inequality-causes-economic-collapse/, MEASURING REGENERATIVE ECONOMICS: 10 PRINCIPLES AND MEASURES UNDERGIRDING SYSTEMIC ECONOMIC HEALTH145 Increasing material footprint and no existence of environmental Kuznets either! Even if it existed we could not continue on its path. 173 Quotas, tiered pricing and taxes don’t do enough because of problem in setting required level to bring down environmental impacts of the economy. SeeCOLONIALISM IN THE ANTROPOCENE: THE POLITICAL ECOLOGY OF THE MONEY-ENERGY-TECHNOLOGY COMPLEX15MYTEN OM MASKINEN: ESSÄER OM MAKT; MODERNITET OCH MILJÖ 63, 64 Instead work with paradigm/mindset and the goal of the system 176 Be good, start giving, be one with nature. Be generous through regenerative design. Change the core/purpose of business. Help nature. SeeTHINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on setting goals Janine Benyus and biomimicry. 180 Circular economy can be seen as good start though towards regenerative design. See < THE CIRCULAR BIOECONOMY AND DECOUPLING: IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH on circular economy. DECOUPLING DEBUNKED – EVIDENCE AND ARGUMENTS AGAINST GREEN GROWTH AS A SOLE STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABILITY182 Recycling start doing it. 85 % of phones were not recycled. Nothing is 100 % recyclable. Look at Japan, close (98%) but no cigar. Cyclical economy instead of circular economy! SeeTHE ENTROPY LAW AND THE ECONOMIC PROCESS IN RETROSPECT on economic process as entropic, < THE CIRCULAR BIOECONOMY AND DECOUPLING: IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, DECOUPLING DEBUNKED – EVIDENCE AND ARGUMENTS AGAINST GREEN GROWTH AS A SOLE STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABILITY Wealth of people, biosphere and knowledge dissipate. 183 Open Source Circular Economy 189 Create economies that make us thrive whether or not they grow. 201 What’s next for growth and its curve? 203 Wisdom of the Johns, steady-state and an economy for the people with the economic problem solved. Limiting factor. S-curve and Verhulst. 205 S-curve known among biologists and ecologist but not among economists. Georgescu-Roegen confronted economics with the carrying capacity of the planet. Growth not happening anymore 207 Is sufficient absolute decoupling happening? SeeTHE ENTROPY LAW AND THE ECONOMIC PROCESS IN RETROSPECT on economic process as entropic, < THE CIRCULAR BIOECONOMY AND DECOUPLING: IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, DECOUPLING DEBUNKED – EVIDENCE AND ARGUMENTS AGAINST GREEN GROWTH AS A SOLE STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABILITYability. European Environmental Bureau, PROSPERITY WITHOUT GROWTH on decoupling 213 Ayres and declining exergy into useful work “increasing efficiency with which energy is converted into useful work”. Oil is invisible slaves. End of growth. EROI. SeeTURNING POINT: THE END OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH?, SUSTAINABILITY ECONOMICS: WHERE DO WE STAND? on exergy into useful work as the driver of growthon technical efficiency, useful work and growth. Digital revolution is material and energy intensive. Sharing economy means slower growth. 215 Capitalist economies, their laws, institutions, policies and values, are structured around growth, “We have an economy that needs to grow, whether or not I makes us thrive. We need an economy that makes us thrive, whether or not it grows” See Turning. 219 Conservative measure trying to save the growth based economy can lead to desperate and destructive measures, like privatizing public services and turning public wealth into private revenue. Let’s restructure economy around allowing people and planet to flourish within limits and use Rostows pre-conditions for take-off: “each of the major characteristics of the traditional society was altered in such ways as to permit regular growth: its politics, social structure, and (to a degree) its values, as well as its economy”. System thinking is a tool for the restructure. 221 Search for gain and rate of return. Aristoteles on interest, “For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term interest, which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of an modes of getting wealth this is the most unnatural.” Problem of search for gain is that it drives shareholder return, speculative trading and interest bearing loans making financial system depend on growth. SeeECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS. Financing meeting limits, Fullerton and Evergreen Direct Investing. Money contrasting against nature. Nature feel entropy as tractors rust, crops rot, smartphones break, building crumble but money just keeps increasing because of interest. Demurrage! Silvio Gessel, make money deteriorate. Keynes was impressed by the idea! SeeECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS, MYTEN OM MASKINEN: ESSÄER OM MAKT; MODERNITET OCH MILJÖ223 Governments believe in unending economic growth because it helps with revenue without raising taxes SeePROSPERITY WITHOUT GROWTHDemurrage currency to boost regenerative investment in tomorrow. 226 New economic education 235 Experiment, we are remaking economy everyday 238 I THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMERGood or bad, depends on what is growing. “Reinforcing feedback loops are self-enhancing, leading to exponential growth or to runaway collapses over time. They are found whenever a stock has the capacity to reinforce or reproduce itself” Reinforcing feedback loop in the engine of growth. 32 A stock with one reinforcing loop and one balancing loop, population and industrial economy. 42 People will get richer (economic development) if reinforcing loop of capital accumulation grows faster than the reinforcing loop of population growth. 50 Both systems, population and economy, share the feed-back loops structures, “Both have a stock governed by a reinforcing growth loop and a balancing death loop. Both also have an aging process. Steel mills and lathes and turbines get older and die just as people do.” Balancing feedback loop is in the end entropy. 51 Two-stock systems, a renewable stock constrained by a nonrenewable stock, an oil economy. 58 All physical entities are constrained by nature, consumes material, energy and produces waste. “Any physical, growing system is going to run into some kind of constraint, sooner or later.” Constraint is “a balancing feedback loop that in some way shifts the dominance of the reinforcing loop driving the growth behavior, either by strengthening the outflow of by weakening the inflow:” Growth in constrained environment – the limits to growth archetype. “No real physical system can grow forever.” “In physical, exponentially growing systems, there must be a least on reinforcing loop driving the growth and at least on balancing loop constraining the growth, because no physical system can grow forever in a finite environment” Resource-constrained systems – pollution-constrained systems. 59 The depletion of nonrenewables through growth system. “A quantity growing exponentially toward a constraint or limit reaches that limit in a surprisingly short time”. Little added time to develop alternatives independent of amount of nonrenewable resource. SeePROSPERITY WITHOUT GROWTH63 Local limits will become global limits for growth. 65 The economic fall will be great after the production peak of an economy based on non-renewables “Unless, perhaps, the economy can learn to operate entirely from renewable resources” Two-stock systems, renewable stock constrained by a renewable stock—a fishing economy, a fishing economy. 66 Turning renewable into nonrenewable through technical efficiency “Nonrenewable resources are stock-limited. The entire stock is available at once, and can be extracted at any rate (limited mainly by extraction capital). But since the stock is not renewed, the faster the extraction rate, the shorter the lifetime of the resource”“Renewable resources are flow-limited. They can support extraction or harvest indefinitely, but only at a finite flow rate equal to their generation rate. If they are extracted faster than they regenerate, they may eventually be driven below a critical threshold and become, for all practical purposes, nonrenewable.” Renewable-resource cycles but now we can through technology and efficiency drive resource population to extinction. Possible behaviors of renewable resource system: 1. overshoot and adjustment to a sustainable equilibrium 71 Overshoot followed by collapse of the resource and the industry dependent on the resource. Outcome depends of 2 things: 1. Threshold 2. Rapidity and effectiveness of the balancing feedback. Consequence: 1. Equilibrium 2. Oscillation 3. resource and industry collapses 72 Resilience, self-organization and hierarchy make systems work well. 75 Resilience 76 Self-organization. Self-organizations is often destroyed in the name of productivity and stability. It produces heterogeneity and unpredictability. 79 Modern energy system is not decomposable is it dependent on resources and decisions from around the world. Hierarchies work from the lowest level up. “The original purpose of a hierarchy is always to help its originating subsystems do their jobs better. This is something, unfortunately, that both the higher and the lower levels of a greatly articulated hierarchy easily can forget. Therefore, many systems are not meeting our goals because of malfunctioning hierarchies.”84 Event-behavior-structure “System structure is the source of system behavior. System behavior reveals itself as a series of events over time” 89 Economic models doesn’t look at the structure of the system. We pay to much attention to events 90 System trap of addiction. Dependence of oil. Instead of looking at symptom confront the real state of the system, e.g. the oil addiction of the economic system. 134 World3, Limits to growth found growth to be a leverage point. Not only population but economic growth. “Growth has costs as well as benefits, and we typically don’t count the costs – among which are poverty and hunger, environmental destruction, and so on – the whole list of problems we are trying to solve with growth! What is needed is much slower growth, very different kinds of growth, and in some cases no growth or negative growth.” Political leaders are pushing the lever in the wrong direction! 146 “The most stunning thing living systems and some social systems can do is to change themselves utterly by creating whole new structures and behaviors. In biological systems that power is called evolution. In human economies it’s called technical advance or social revolution. In systems lingo it’s called self-organization.” 159 “Self-organization is basically a matter of an evolutionary raw material – a highly variable stock of information from which to select patterns – and a means for experimentation, for selecting and testing new patterns.” Importance of biodiversity. Biodiversity is the source of evolutionary potential. “Allowing species to go extinct is a systems crime”. Human cultures. “Insistence on a single culture shuts down learning and cuts back resilience. Any system, biological, economic, or social, that gets so encrusted that it cannot self-evolve, a system that systematically scorns experimentation and wipes out the raw material of innovation, is doomed over the long term on this highly variable planet.” Encourage variability, experimentation and diversity even if it means losing control. “Let a thousand flower bloom and anything could happen!”160 Growth as a goal, “Actually it’s the goal of every living population—and only a bad one when it isn’t balanced by higher level balancing feedback loops that never let an upstart power-loop-driven entity control the world. The goal of keeping the market competitive has to trump the goal of each individual corporation to eliminate its competitors, just as in ecosystems, the goal of keeping populations in balance and evolving has to trump the goal of each population to reproduce without limit.” 161, 162 Paradigms, “The shared idea in the minds of society, the great big unstated assumptions, constitute that society’s paradigm, or deepest set of beliefs about how the world works.” 162, 163 Examples of paradigmatic assumptions/ideas of our modern culture: money measures something real, growth is good, natures resources are the property of humans. “Paradigms are the sources of systems. From them, from shared social agreements about the nature of reality, come system goals and information flows, feedbacks, stocks, flows, and everything else about systems.” 163 Kuhn and changing paradigms. Transcending paradigms. “your own worldview, is a tremendously limited understanding of an immense and amazing universe that is far beyond human comprehension”164 “One of the worst ideas humanity ever had was the interest rate, which led to the further ideas of payback periods and discount rates, all of which provide a rational, quantitative excuse for ignoring the long term.” 182 I DANA (DONELLA) MEADOWS LECTURE: SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMSLimits to growth archetype. E.g. Fisheries. 09.49 This system is going to crash. 10.00 Even distribution and price and fish. 12.37 However with uneven distribution rich can pay whatever. What actually is happening with fisheries. 13.03 Price could stop but it isn’t. Uneven income distribution stops it. 14.14 Villains: 1. Desire for growth. E.g. Fisheries 14.51 2. Technology 15.20 3. Market 15.33 The villains are taught by our culture to be the saviors/super heroes 15.46 Balancing/negative loops, potlatch, equal education, taxes 22.38 World3 big model of same thing, growth ethic trying to make more, a lot of successful to the successful 26.13 The reason for Limits to growth exactly the same as for the fisheries. 27.03 LIMITS! Beyond the limits 28.14 The system can be changed! 29.05 Sustainable system: 1. Meaningful, moral, satisfying goal – sense of enough 2. Feedback loops balanced 3. Clean, clear, fast, compelling information flow 4. Protection of resource base, including resilience, self-organizing and evolution 5. Social equity 29.36 To encouragement
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